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Global Economic Slowdown

Insights Neutral on US stocks due to the inverted yield curve and high valuation. Positive on US bonds as the Fed expected to lower rates amid disinflation. Neutral on US real assets as interest rates and inflation expectations decline. Neutral on USD cash as interest rates currently high but expected to decline. Neutral on the US economy as leading economic indicators little changed. Federal Reserve under pressure to lower rates as economic activity slows. US leading economic indicators signaling an economic slowdown in progress. US leading economic indicators most similar to May 1998 conditions. NY Fed 12-month recession probability elevated at 30% based on yield curve. 2019 yield curve in

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